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Greece must implement bailout deal, EU Commission ready to help

Alarabiya 

BRUSSELS
Greece must implement the reforms it agreed to under the second bailout program and the European Commission is ready to help Athens with that, the European Union executive said on Monday, after Greek parties opposing the bailout did well in elections.
“Full and timely implementation of the program is of the essence in order to meet the targets and (reach) sustainability of the Greek debt,” Commission economic and monetary affairs spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told a regular news briefing.
Greece’s conservative leader, whose New Democracy party won the biggest support in elections on Sunday, began a hunt for partners to forge a coalition that would continue reforms agreed with the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund, which are a condition for continued emergency financing for Athens.
Without the EU/IMF funds, Greece would have to default on its debt, which some politicians believe would entail leaving the euro zone and the European Union.
But on Sunday, voters savaged the two ruling parties for imposing steep wage and spending cuts, in line with the bailout terms, and forming a coalition government in support of the reforms might be difficult.
“A second program has been negotiated with the Greek authorities, on behalf of the Greek state... the private sector has contributed... but of course when it comes to implementation, it is up to the Greek authorities,” Altafaj said.
The bailout program is an ambitious deal struck in February that aims to clear the way for Greece to return to financial markets by 2015.
“We stand ready to continue to assist Greece with its ongoing reform agenda in the framework of the second economic adjustment program,” European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen told the briefing.
The Commission said it was premature to anticipate what decisions a future Greek government that might emerge from the coalition talks could take regarding the bailout reforms.
“We do not have a new government in Greece yet,” she said. “The Commission hopes and expects that the future government of Greece will respect the engagement that Greece has entered into.”
Greece consistently missed targets under its first program, agreed in April 2010, which led to the restructuring of its private-sector debt under the second package.
Officials say any further backsliding now will not be tolerated, especially with the International Monetary Fund a reluctant partner in the second program.

Saudi Arabia and US debated oil reserve swap before OPEC meeting

By JEFF MASON AND RICHARD MABLY
REUTERS WASHINGTON
It was to be a swap felt around the world -- a plan privately discussed by the world’s largest oil exporter and the globe’s biggest consumer to take the heat out of $120-plus oil prices.

In the weeks leading up to the failed June OPEC meeting in Vienna, the United States and Saudi officials met to discuss surprising the market with an unprecedented arrangement: exchanging urgently-needed high-quality crude oil stored in the US emergency reserve for heavier, low-quality oil from Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the plan.


The idea involved shipping some of the light low-sulphur, or “sweet,” crude out of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to European refiners, who needed it after the war in Libya cut off shipments of its premium crude varieties coveted for making gasoline and diesel.

In return Saudi Arabia would sell its heavier high-sulphur or “sour” crude at a discount back to the United States to top up the caverns that hold America’s emergency stocks.

It was a striking suggestion, one that would have demonstrated Washington’s readiness to put the SPR to extraordinary use and Riyadh’s willingness to work creatively with consumers to quell high prices.

But it did not make it past the drawing board, four sources familiar with the talks confirmed. The sources disagree on which country proposed the plan. Two said it fell apart because Riyadh was not willing to subsidize European or US customers by discounting its crude prices below market value.

The swap idea illustrates a recently deepening engagement between Saudi Arabia and the United States on oil affairs under President Barack Obama, and shows how high the stakes were ahead of the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on June 8 in Vienna.

With gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon in many parts of the United States, Mr. Obama was seeing his support ebb in opinion polls, just as the White House was beginning to focus on the 2012 election.

The Saudis were concerned about the health of the global economy with oil prices surging above $100 a barrel. Riyadh knew that high prices, while good for short-term income, would cut fuel demand over the longer term.

Washington had pressed Saudi Arabia to boost oil production at least twice ahead of the OPEC meeting that ended in failure, sources told Reuters.

After war broke out in Libya and its oil output fell, the Saudis complied with the initial request, but they weren’t happy when European refiners didn’t jump to buy their crude, even a “special brew” of lighter quality, an Arab official said.

“We need someone to take our crude. We don’t just want to store it,” the official said.

Industry sources described a “difficult” Riyadh meeting that a US delegation held about a month ago with Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi.

“They were told, ‘If you’re going to find us extra refineries that are asking for demand, we’ll supply that,’” the Arab official said.

Deputies from the US Energy and Treasury departments also visited Riyadh to make the case for stepped-up oil production, a source close to the Saudi government said, although the timing of this meeting was unclear.

One of the officials who attended that meeting was Jonathan Elkind, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy and International Affairs at the Energy Department, a source told Reuters.

Within days, Mr. Elkind was flying to Paris for a regular meeting of the board of governors of the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which speaks for 28 industrialized oil consumer countries.

After that meeting, the governing board released an unusually blunt statement urging OPEC to raise output and announcing that it would consider using “all the tools” at its disposal -- a clear reference to emergency reserves.

The US State and Energy Departments would not comment on whether the meetings took place or offer other details, while the White House has acknowledged regular talks with producers without being specific about their content.

Set up in 1974 to protect oil consumers after the Arab oil embargo, the IEA has held an open and cordial dialogue with OPEC ever since the Gulf War in 1990-1991, one of only two times it has authorized a global release of strategic stocks.

But the May 20 missive suggested a new cooling in the relationship between the world’s big oil consumers and producers, and provoked a backlash from some in OPEC.

“Strategic reserves should be kept for their purpose and not used as a weapon against OPEC,” OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al Badri told the Reuters Global Energy and Climate Summit on Tuesday.

“We never interfere in the IEA and really we don’t want them to interfere in our business. They should do it in a professional manner. We should not talk to each other through the media,” he said.
Washington appears to have mostly heeded that comment, and kept quiet about its engagement, in contrast to previous administrations.

In April, President Obama -- who has several times blamed speculators for the run-up in prices -- made a rare public call for world oil producers to boost production.

“We are in a lot of conversations with major oil producers like Saudi Arabia,” he said in a Detroit television interview.

The tension within the cartel boiled over last week in Vienna, when seven members of the group balked at a Saudi-led plan to increase production. While ministers said the breakdown was caused by differing views over the market outlook in the second half of this year, Iran blamed unspecified “consumer countries” for influencing the debate.

“What happened shows OPEC is an independent organization,” OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi told Reuters. “If one wants to exert pressure to make the others give up -- no.”

The kingdom declared it would go it alone. Sources say Saudi Arabia is raising production in July by nearly 1 million bpd to around 10 million bpd, although Brent crude oil prices have continued to press higher, reaching a five-week peak of more than $120 a barrel on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia has the world’s highest concentration of super-rich households


By DINA AL SHIBEEB
Al Arabiya with Agencies
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, has the highest number of super-rich households worth more than $100 million in the world.

The Boston Consulting Group said that other Gulf countries such as Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also ranked among the 10 nations with the highest density of ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNW).

The BCG study said that it measured Saudi Arabia UHNW per 100,000 households, at 18, while Kuwait had 8, Qatar had 6 and the UAE had 5.

“Given the demographics and overall wealth of these petroleum-rich countries we would expect a higher proportion of UHNW households than in other parts of the world,” said Sven-Olaf Vathje, partner at BCG Middle East. “Growth in assets under management also reflects the strong fundamentals of the region, driven by continuing strong petroleum prices.”

BCG’s report showed that the wealth of the oil-rich Gulf countries is also growing at a rate unmatched elsewhere.

Bolstered by high oil prices, wealth in Middle East and North Africa grew 8.6 percent to $4.5 trillion in 2010, and is expected to reach $6.7 trillion by 2015, BCG said.

In order to tap into the region’s growth wealth, BCG said international and local banks are pushing for investment in the Gulf.

“You see a lot of banks in the UAE but also the other GCC countries that are investing actively into wealth management. It’s pretty clear why that’s the case [as] it’s a very stable source of revenue if you do it right,” said Markus Massi, partner at BCG Middle East.

“Many banks have seen their investment banking revenues and corporate banking revenues go through some roller coaster over the last couple of years so the desire to participate in this global business is very strong,” he said.

Wealth managers are also targeting the women in the six Gulf States, who hold around 22 percent, or $0.7 trillion, of the region’s wealth.

But the Gulf countries’ rankings for millionaires are not lavishly the same.

Singapore topped the rankings with a 33 percent rise in its number of millionaires. The US had the most $1 million-plus households, with 5.2 million, followed by Japan and China.

It is estimated that the ranks of millionaires swelled by 12 percent in 2010 on a global level.

Global assets under management rose by 8 percent to $121.8 trillion in 2010, beating the study’s previous peak of $111.8 trillion in 2007

(Dina Al Shibeeb, an editor at Al Arabiya English, can be reached at: dina.ibrahim@mbc.net)

Moody's downgrades various government-related issuers in Dubai


Edited by George Haddad
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded various government-related issuers (GRIs) in Dubai, concluding a review initiated on 4 August 2009. The ratings remain investment-grade and are substantially above those that would be based on the entities' stand-alone credit quality. This rating uplift reflects the strategic importance of the GRIs to the government, which makes it likely that the government would extend them support, should such support be needed.

However, the downgrades reflect recent disclosures that reveal the increasing conditionality under which support may be provided.

Ratings affected by today's action are the following:
- DP World issuer and debt ratings were downgraded to A3 from A1;
- Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) issuer and debt ratings were downgraded to A3 from A1;
- DIFC Investments (DIFCI) issuer and debt ratings were downgraded to A3 from A1;
- Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZ) issuer and debt ratings were downgraded to Baa1 from A3;
- Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group (DHCOG) issuer and debt ratings were downgraded to Baa1 from A3;
- Emaar Properties issuer ratings were maintained at Baa1.

The ratings outlook for DP World, DEWA, DIFCI and JAFZ is negative, reflecting ongoing economic pressures. The ratings of both DHCOG and Emaar have been maintained on review for downgrade, pending the completion of Moody's ongoing assessment of the impact of the proposed merger of Emaar with DHCOG's real estate operations.

The downgrades follow recent disclosures of increased conditionality around when support could be provided to these GRIs. This includes the specific criteria that will be considered by the recently established Dubai Financial Support Fund when assessing whether financial assistance should be provided. Among these criteria are whether the GRIs are able to demonstrate sustainable business plans, the on-going support of their existing financial creditors, and realistic prospects of fulfilling their repayment obligations.

The government also reiterated that GRI debt obligations not benefiting from a guarantee are not regarded as obligations of the government and that the government is under no obligation to extend support to any such GRI either directly or through the Support Fund.

Moody's is therefore making a greater distinction between its view of the creditworthiness of Dubai's GRIs and that of the Dubai central government, which is itself viewed by Moody's as benefiting from support from the UAE federal government (rated Aa2, stable). The UAE federal government continues to be seen as an important source of support for Dubai and for funding future increases, if required, to the Dubai Financial Support Fund.

Moody's views the liquidity profiles of four of the six rated GRI's (DP World, DEWA, JAFZ and Emaar) as fairly robust, with only moderate maturities until 2012. Moody's notes that DIFCI and DHCOG are understood to have already received liquidity support and will likely require additional liquidity support in the future.

Moody's assumes that the second USD 10 billion tranche will be funded imminently to further prop up the gradually depleting Support Fund.

Dubai's recent successful government bond issuance is also likely to be supportive to Dubai's liquidity profile and alleviate some of the pressures that would arise from further bail-outs, although the use of proceeds has not been specified.

In terms of stabilizing the outlooks, an overall upturn in economic activity and sound liquidity management are key factors for the majority of the rated GRIs, particularly those with sound underlying business models. Those companies in more vulnerable sectors (real estate) may potentially remain under pressure over a more prolonged period.

For a more in-depth assessment of today's rating action, please also refer to our Special Comment "Dubai Inc Credit Environment Update and Outlook", as well as individual Credit Opinions on the six rated GRI's, which will be published shortly on moodys.com.

The last rating action on Dubai's corporate GRI's was on August 3, 2009, when Moody's placed all ratings on review for downgrade. Today's rating action concludes that review.

Global Arab Network

Kuwait Financial Forum due on November 1-2


Posted by John Short
Kuwait Financial Forum, planned in coordination with Kuwait Central Bank and the business and economics group (Al-Iktissad Wal-Aamal Group), would be held here at start of November.

The event will be under the patronization of His Highness the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Al-Mohammad Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah.

A total of 600 leading financial personnel will participate in the forum which will be held at the Sheraton Hotel on November 1-2, "Al-Masaref" magazine, issued by the Union of Kuwaiti Banks, said in its latest edition.

The magazine described the forum as the first comprehensive Arab, public and banking forum to analyze the global financial impacts on the economy, banks and stock markets in the Arab world.

The forum was greatly welcomed in the region and finance ministers, and governors of central banks and Islamic banking institutions would take part in the major event.

The magazine included a report with statements by a number of economic experts who said local banks' performance was "better than what they expected." The report included an exclusive interview with the Chief Economist at Dexia Asset management Anton Brender, plus other reports and news updates about banks and financial institutions.(KUNA)

Global Arab Network

Qatar: CI affirms commercial bank international's foreign currency ratings


Edited by Sami Kasam

Capital Intelligence (CI), the international credit rating agency, today announced that it has affirmed Commercial Bank International’s (CBI) foreign currency ratings at BB+ long-term and B short-term with a ‘Stable’ outlook. The ratings are underpinned by the likelihood of support from the federal government and from major shareholder Qatar National Bank (QNB) in case of need. The support rating has been raised to 3 from 4, reflecting the shareholding by QNB.

The financial strength rating has been reduced to BB from BB+ in view of the deterioration in asset quality in H1 2009. The slowing local economy has increased credit risks, and higher provisioning requirements are likely to impact future earnings. However, there are plans to increase capital, which could provide some cushion against external shocks. The outlook for the financial strength rating is Stable.

Commercial Bank International has had frequent changes in management over the last ten years. Although strategies were laid down some years ago outlining its transformation into a modern-day commercial bank, CBI has yet to realise its full potential. A new CEO and new heads for major business groups were appointed over the last year. Credit underwriting standards have improved. New branding and corporate identity campaigns have been launched, the product range has been widened and the IT area is being substantially strengthened. Unfortunately, CBI’s transformation has coincided with the downturn in the local economy, presenting the new management with serious challenges.

One of the main problems facing the bank is the deterioration in asset quality this year. Non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased. While the capital adequacy ratio strengthened at end June 2009, capital remains impaired by a high level of unprovided NPLs. CBI’s profitability ratios declined in H1 2009 due to high loan-loss provision charges. Net profit could come under further strain in the second half of the year, particularly if NPLs rise.

Liquidity had deteriorated towards end 2008 with the contraction of customer deposits, reflecting the tight conditions in the financial markets at that time. However, the bank was able to raise a considerable amount of interbank funds. CBI also received deposits from the federal government under its liquidity support programme for the banking sector.

CBI is one of the UAE’s smaller local banks, with total assets of USD10.9 billion at end 2008. QNB acquired a 16.5% stake in CBI last year and has two seats on the board as well as representation on the executive committee, audit committee and advances committee. QNB provides support in the treasury area. CBI has not entered into a management agreement with QNB. CBI is primarily a corporate bank with a growing retail banking business. Trade finance continues to be its mainstay and customers are still mainly small and medium-sized companies. The bank is expanding its corporate banking business to include larger companies and public-sector entities. Treasury activities are being substantially upgraded. The bank operates a brokerage subsidiary.

Global Arab Network

Fitch: UAE Banks Face Increased Impairments in Tough Environment


By George Haddad

Fitch Ratings says today in a special report that the eight largest UAE national banks continue to face rising impairments and other challenges, but can absorb higher impairments as capitalisation has improved and they have a high level of sustainable revenues.

"The first half of 2009 has been challenging, with a rapidly slowing economy, liquidity pressures and rising impairments restricting new lending and profitability," says Robert Thursfield, Director in Fitch's Financial Institutions team. "While the situation has eased somewhat and with the help of some capital injections bank capitalisation has improved, the outlook remains challenging for the UAE's banks."

Results for the first six months of 2009 (H109) show the eight largest national banks reporting still adequate levels of profits (combined net income of AED8.8bn), although it will be difficult for them to repeat this level in H209, in Fitch's view. Cost growth is also likely to slow as banks become more cautious in their expansion plans, although with the average cost/income ratio of the eight banks a fairly low 33.2%, the capacity to absorb slightly higher costs remains.

Asset quality ratios are under pressure but most of the banks' non-performing loans remain around 2% of total lending at end-H109. "However, this is a lag indicator and remains artificially low given the rapid levels of loan growth over the last few years and is likely to rise as growth has slowed significantly and as the existing portfolio loan book seasons." Thursfield added. Real estate related impairments are likely to rise given that the fallout from the significant real estate crash across the UAE has not yet been reflected in banks' financial statements.

Fitch has conducted a sensitivity test on asset quality and capital ratios and believes that all of the eight banks could absorb 100% and 220% increases in impaired loans over the next two years and still maintain minimum Tier 1 ratios of 12% and 8% respectively. Increases in impaired loans of this magnitude are feasible given the challenges faced by the market and as a consequence, despite recent improvements Fitch expects ongoing pressure on capital ratios. Most of the eight banks received direct injections of tier 1 capital from their respective emirates' governments.

Funding and liquidity pressures were significant for all banks during Q408 and although these have eased in H109 with the UAE Ministry of Finance (MoF) placing AED50bn of deposits into the banking system, the imbalance between loans and deposits persists. Competition for customer deposits remains high and with debt capital markets remaining unattractive to date in 2009, funding costs rose. The UAE Federal Authorities have sought to address this by issuing a guarantee on all bank deposits and planning to do the same for bank debt issuance, although no detail on either guarantee has yet been forthcoming.

Global Arab Network